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Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 marked Rivian’s first positive gross profit at $170 million, driven by lower variable costs, higher R1 ASPs (Tri-Motor mix), regulatory credits, and software/services revenue; total revenue reached $1,734 million and gross margin improved to 10% .
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $(277) million, a $729 million year-over-year improvement vs Q4 2023, reflecting operational efficiencies and mix; consolidated software and services gross margin was 28% in Q4 .
  • 2025 guidance: 46,000–51,000 deliveries, Adjusted EBITDA loss of $(1,700)–$(1,900) million, and CapEx $1,600–$1,700 million; management “expects modest gross profit” for FY25 .
  • Strategic catalysts: JV with Volkswagen closed (up to $5.8 billion, ~$1.96 billion of revenue recognized over ~4 years, back-end weighted and largely profit), and DOE loan up to $6.6 billion to fund capacity expansion; both bolster liquidity and fund ramps for R2 and the midsize platform .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Achieved first positive quarterly gross profit ($170 million), with a 10% gross margin, reflecting $31,000 per-vehicle COGS reduction versus Q4 2023 and stronger R1 Tri-Motor mix; “This quarter we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive COGS per vehicle” — RJ Scaringe .
  • Strong growth in software and services: $214 million revenue and $60 million gross profit in Q4; segment-level gross margin reached 28% .
  • Liquidity strengthened: JV with Volkswagen (up to $5.8B) and DOE loan up to $6.6B; Q4 liquidity (cash, equivalents, ST investments, restricted) increased to $7,700 million; Q4 free cash flow positive at $856 million .

What Went Wrong

  • Demand and policy uncertainties weigh on 2025 outlook; guidance embeds “hundreds of millions” EBITDA impact from incentives, tariffs, and regulations .
  • Q1 2025 deliveries expected ~8,000 due to seasonality, LA fires impact, and mix normalization after elevated EDV deliveries in Q4; Q1 production planned ~14,000 to build inventory ahead of mid-2025 plant downtime .
  • Automotive gross profit negative for FY24 and expected negative on a GAAP basis in FY25 (offset by software/services profits); LCNRV benefits to fade as cost structure improves .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$1,315 $874 $1,734
Net Loss per Share (GAAP) ($)$(1.58) $(1.08) $(0.70)
Gross Margin (%)(46)% (45)% 10%
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$(1,006) $(757) $(277)

Segment breakdown (Q4 2024):

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)Segment Gross Profit ($USD Millions)Segment Gross Margin (%)
Automotive$1,520 $110 7%
Software & Services$214 $60 28%

Key KPIs:

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Vehicles Produced (Units)17,541 13,157 12,727
Vehicles Delivered (Units)13,972 10,018 14,183
Software & Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$107 $98 $214
Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$(1,405) $(1,153) $856
Cash, ST Investments, Restricted ($USD Millions)$9,368 $6,739 $7,700
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$975 $777 $831

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Vehicles DeliveredFY 2025N/A46,000 – 51,000 New
Adjusted EBITDA (Loss)FY 2025N/A$(1,700) – $(1,900) million New
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025~$1,500 million (shared in Q2 2024 call) $1,600 – $1,700 million Raised
Gross Profit (GAAP)FY 2025“Target positive gross profit” (Q3/Q2 calls) “Expect modest gross profit” Maintained/clarified
Software & Services RevenueFY 2025N/A“North of ~$1 billion” (directional) New
Software & Services MarginFY 2025N/A~30% (directional) New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Autonomy/AIGen-2 architecture, 10x compute, vertical integration roadmap Continued platform progress; vertical stack benefits Hands-free highway “very soon”; eyes-off highway in 2026; access GPUs via flexible structures Advancing capabilities; monetization path emerging
Supply ChainGen-2 retooling completed; efficiency focus Enduro component shortage constrained volumes; ramp recovery underway Shortage impacted Q4 mix; not expected to affect 2025 operations Constraint easing
Policy/Tariffs/IncentivesN/AAim for FY25 positive gross profit; credits under contract Guidance embeds “hundreds of millions” EBITDA impact from policy changes Elevated uncertainty
Product Mix/PerformanceTri-Motor/Quad introduced; cost-downs Tri-Motor launched; elevated EDV deliveries planned Higher Tri-Motor take-rate, R1 ASP uplift; ~8k Q1 deliveries guide Mix shift supportive
JV & Software/ServicesJV intention with VW announced On track to close; demonstrator built JV closed; ~$1.96B deferred revenue over ~4 years, back-end weighted; S&S FY25 >$1B Scale and profitability tailwind
Charging/ServiceRAN expansion and service network build-out Demo-drive expansion via service centers 71 service centers, >600 mobile vans; RAN uptime 98%; opening RAN to non-Rivian Ecosystem strengthening
Macro/DemandN/AChallenging consumer backdrop; leasing at 42% Seasonality + LA fires impact; Q1 deliveries ~8k Near-term headwinds

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023.” — RJ Scaringe .
  • “We reduced automotive COGS by $31,000 per vehicle and increased automotive revenue per unit excluding regulatory credits to $86,000… nearly $300 million of regulatory credits in the fourth quarter.” — Claire McDonough .
  • “We expect to recognize approximately $2 billion of consideration from Volkswagen Group as revenue over approximately four years… more back-end weighted.” — Claire McDonough .
  • “Hands-free highway feature launching very soon; eyes-off highway in 2026.” — RJ Scaringe .

Q&A Highlights

  • Policy/incentive/tariff sensitivity: Management embedded “hundreds of millions” of EBITDA impact in FY25 outlook due to potential incentive and tariff changes .
  • 2025 cadence: Q1 deliveries ~8,000; Q1 production ~14,000 to build inventory ahead of ~1-month second-half plant shutdown for R2 integration .
  • Regulatory credits: Expect roughly ~$300 million in FY25 (with upside/downside based on policy) after ~$300 million in FY24 .
  • JV revenue recognition: ~$1.96 billion of consideration recognized over ~4 years, back-end weighted and “pure profit” flow-through .
  • DOE loan context: Up to $6.6B supports 7,500 new jobs and capacity expansion; alignment with US industrial policy .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved at this time due to access limits, so a vs-consensus comparison is unavailable.
  • Implication: Without consensus benchmarks, focus shifts to internal guidance and operational drivers disclosed by management .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • First positive quarterly gross profit and sharply improved adjusted EBITDA signal tangible cost execution and mix benefits; watch sustainability of 10%+ gross margin absent regulatory credits .
  • Software and services is becoming a material profit center (28% margin in Q4), with FY25 revenue guided “north of $1 billion” and margin ~30%; back-end weighted JV revenue adds high-quality profit .
  • FY25 guide embeds policy headwinds; deliveries 46k–51k and adjusted EBITDA loss $(1.7)–$(1.9)B imply continued investment ahead of R2; traders should monitor policy developments impacting incentives/credits .
  • Near-term cadence: Q1 deliveries ~8k and planned H2 plant downtime suggest quarterly lumpiness; positive FY25 gross profit expected in aggregate driven by software/services .
  • Liquidity runway strengthened: JV and DOE loan plus $7.7B cash/ST investments as of Q4 provide capital to fund Normal ramp and Georgia build-out, de-risking R2 launch in H1 2026 .
  • Mix and ASP: Tri-Motor take-rate exceeded expectations, lifting ASP; automotive segment still negative on a GAAP basis for FY25 but improving on cash metrics as D&A and LCNRV effects fade .
  • Execution focus: Supply constraint eased; operational efficiency and vertical integration remain key to margin trajectory; monitor RAN expansion and service scaling for customer experience and revenue .